Israeli Media and Ex-General Warn New War on Iran Could Backfire

Israeli media and military figures have warned that a new round of military confrontation with Iran could carry heavy and unpredictable costs for its initiators, according to a report carried by Mehr News. The Hebrew-language newspaper Haaretz said in a report that starting a new conflict with Iran could amount to a strategic error whose consequences would not be limited to Iran's borders or the occupied territories and could draw Persian Gulf countries into a wider crisis.

Retired Israeli army general Itzhak Brik, writing in the Ma'ariv newspaper, warned about the possibility that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could move toward new military action against Iran. Brik said that if American and Israeli decision-makers take such a step under the influence of political calculations and domestic developments, its consequences would go far beyond a bilateral confrontation. He argued that renewed confrontation could spread crisis across the region, intensify Israel's internal problems and place it in a difficult position. The report noted that Brik speaks from within Israel's military structure and bases his assessment on an understanding of its military capacities, operational limitations and vulnerabilities.

According to the report, one of the main lessons of the recent war with Iran is a change in Israeli and American security calculations regarding the costs of military action against Tehran. Previously, some decision-making circles in Tel Aviv assumed that weapons superiority and American military support could allow them to impose their will on Iran. Practical experience showed, however, that entering a military confrontation with Iran does not mean beginning a path whose end can be easily determined. Iran, with diverse military capacities, extensive strategic geography and the ability to use various instruments of power, can raise the costs of action against it beyond the opposing side's initial calculations.

The report said any decision to start a new confrontation must take into account military, security and economic consequences that may slip out of the initiators' control. It noted that the expansion of conflict could affect vital infrastructure, economic centers, energy facilities and important transportation routes in the region. Persian Gulf countries, given their geographical position and role in the global energy market, are vulnerable to the consequences of a widespread crisis, and any disruption to the region's security could transfer economic effects to global markets, energy prices and international trade. From this perspective, Haaretz's warning about the crisis expanding to Gulf countries expresses the economic and geopolitical dimensions of a possible confrontation.

The report also highlighted Brik's emphasis on the effect of a possible confrontation on Israel's internal situation. It said Israel faces a set of political, social and security challenges, and any widespread military crisis could increase pressure on its political and economic structure. Under such conditions, decision-making about entering a new confrontation may be influenced by the political considerations of Israel's leaders rather than a realistic assessment of security interests and costs. It added that Netanyahu faces numerous pressures in the domestic political atmosphere, highlighting the need to separate strategic interests from short-term political considerations.

The report said Washington's entry into such an equation would not be cost-free either, as it must balance support for Israel, the security of its forces and facilities in the region, and preventing the expansion of crisis in the Persian Gulf. It argued that the fundamental question is not merely the possibility of starting a new military action but the ability to achieve the desired result and control its consequences. The experience of the past eight months, it said, has shown that Iran has the capacity to respond and impose costs on the opposing side, making calculations related to confrontation with Tehran more complex. According to Mehr News, the warnings published in Haaretz and Ma'ariv reflect serious concern in parts of Israel's media and military circles about the costs of renewed confrontation with Iran.