US Democrats lead Republicans by 8.6 points in generic congressional ballot

A new national survey shows Democratic congressional candidates leading Republican candidates by 8.6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a report by Newsweek citing Emerson and Marquette polls. The Quantus Insights survey of 1,389 likely voters, conducted from September 15 to 18, found 50.3 percent supporting the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 41.7 percent favoring the Republican. Another 6.3 percent were undecided, and 1.7 percent selected another candidate. The design-adjusted margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

The generic-ballot question measures which party voters prefer for Congress rather than testing named candidates. Such polls offer a broad view of the political environment, but local campaigns, district boundaries and turnout will determine who wins. The surveys come as control of Congress approaches a decisive test.

Democrats retained an advantage among habitual voters. Respondents who participated in the 2022 midterms favored the party 50 percent to 43.9 percent, while people who voted in all four general elections from 2018 through 2024 broke 50.3 percent to 43.9 percent. Several demographic divides help explain the overall result, the report said.

Candidates in competitive House and Senate races face a political climate shaped by dissatisfaction with the country's direction and President Donald Trump's low approval ratings, according to the report. The findings are based on surveys by Emerson and Marquette as well as Quantus Insights, as reported by Newsweek and carried by Mehr News.