Emerson College poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points in congressional race

An Emerson College Polling survey released Friday found Democrats leading Republicans 52 percent to 42 percent in generic congressional ballot support, according to The Hill. The 10-point margin is only slightly tighter than the 11-point Democratic lead recorded in the polling center's September survey.

The Democratic Party is seeking to retake control of both chambers of Congress in this November's elections. Decision Desk HQ's forecast on Thursday placed the party's odds of gaining control of the House at 80 percent and its chance of winning a Senate majority at 60 percent.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Republican support is ending at the same 42 percent level at which it began in July 2025, when the center started tracking generic ballot support for this election cycle. "Democratic support climbed eight points over the past fifteen months from 44% to 52%, undecided and swing voters clearly shifting in the Democrats' favor," Kimball said in a statement. He added that with about 5 percent still undecided, most of them independents and half of whom disapprove of US President Donald Trump, "Democrats' congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports."

Kimball also pointed to Trump's declining approval ratings this year amid his administration's ongoing military operations against Iran and a trade dispute with Canada. In the October poll, 57 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump's handling of his job as president, a 6-point increase since January. His approval rating stood at 37 percent in the new survey.

The Emerson College Polling findings were reported by The Hill and carried by Mehr News Agency.