Jeffrey Sachs says Trump cannot win Iran war on battlefield or through formal deal

Prominent American economist and Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs, in an interview with Mehr News Agency, said the US government and President Donald Trump cannot achieve victory in the war involving Iran either on the battlefield or through a formal agreement. He argued that the main obstacle to a sustainable political settlement is that Washington, and Trump in particular, does not want to appear weak but cannot win militarily or diplomatically. Sachs said he has long advocated ending the fighting without any formal agreement, a step he said would keep Iran safe, end the destruction, open the Strait of Hormuz and allow Trump to claim what he wishes. The US, he said, should simply lift its blockade and leave the region. He noted that Trump had hinted in recent days at ending the fighting without an agreement, saying no deal was needed and that negotiations should stop, though the blockade has not yet been lifted. Sachs said Washington should lift the blockade de facto, without fanfare, and withdraw. On sanctions, he said the US is unlikely to lift them soon, but Iran will still have many trading partners, as is the case with Russia.

Asked whether a new diplomatic framework between Tehran and Washington is achievable given the history of mistrust, including the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and subsequent military confrontations, Sachs said he does not believe such a framework is likely until there is a new US president, a starkly different government in Israel and a change in outlook among the US political class. He said American voters want peace immediately and are ahead of the politicians, who remain afraid of losing face.

On the international response, Sachs said the UN Security Council failed badly and that US-aligned states on the Council condemned Iran rather than Israel and the US. He described most of Europe's conduct as poor and called for an urgent upgrade in diplomacy, adding that the US needs to start obeying international law again, though this will take time. He said many incoming politicians in the new Congress are advocates of peace and international law, calling the recent election a sign of some real progress.

Regarding China, Russia and other emerging powers, Sachs said the BRICS group should be clear and firm in defending the UN Charter, especially Article 2(4) against the threat or use of force. He said each region should build its own security architecture rather than depend on outside powers, and certainly not on the United States, adding that Iran and the Persian Gulf states have more common interests than real divisions. He said Israel and the US stoked divisions in the Middle East, describing a pattern of divide-and-conquer rule that he said empires have long used.

On the long-term costs, Sachs said the burden of global empire is catching up with the US, describing an overextended empire whose pursuit of primacy in every region led to wars of choice costing trillions of dollars, raising living costs and interest rates, failing in their stated objectives and prompting a voter backlash. He said the damage of the war with Iran is global, that Iran has been very hard hit and that the conflict has been a lose-lose-lose war with no winners. Criticizing European governments, he said European leaders today are almost devoid of strategic insight, that Britain and France still act as if it were 1920, and that most European leaders are in an irrational panic about Russia. He said Europe still lacks a unified foreign policy. The interview was conducted by Mohaddeseh Pakravan for Mehr News Agency.