Report Cites CIA Warning on Internal Pressures Facing Israel

A confidential report attributed to the US Central Intelligence Agency has warned of the possibility of civil war or political collapse in the occupied territories, according to an account published by Mehr News. The report, titled "Infiltration from Within," examines a set of pressures that, if they occur simultaneously, could confront the political and social stability of the Israeli government with a serious crisis.

Among the factors cited are rising military costs and economic pressure, mental and psychological problems among forces returning from war, the dispute over Haredi military service, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's effort to preserve his political position. The report also refers to rising food prices and the costs Israeli society has incurred as a result of what it describes as warmongering policies. It notes that increased living costs have come at a time when a significant portion of the government's financial resources is spent on military operations and security costs, bringing the effects of war directly into citizens' daily lives.

The account says a society willing to tolerate economic and social pressure for a short period under a wartime atmosphere may gradually raise other questions if the war becomes prolonged, costs rise and no clear end is in sight. These include what the costs are for, who is responsible for the continuation of the situation, and whether current policies have actually produced more security. In Israel, the report says, such questions are tied to an older fissure among different groups over the extent of participation in the military and security project, with the dispute over Haredi military service cited as a clear example. It adds that the return of military forces from a long conflict can have widespread social and psychological consequences, including exhaustion and psychological damage, and that part of the cost of war may manifest itself after the battlefield is no longer at the center of media attention.

The report also points to a continuing political crisis, describing Netanyahu's performance and his effort to preserve his political position as one of the main axes of internal disputes. It argues that when a politician's fate becomes tied to the continuation of a security crisis, the boundary between security decisions and political expediency can become ambiguous for public opinion, and that every new military decision may acquire a political interpretation, especially on the eve of elections. It further cites what it describes as increasing international isolation, noting that Israel has obtained an important part of its power not only from military capability but from US political and economic support and extensive relations with Western countries. Any sign of a reduction in that support, it says, can have psychological and political effects beyond a diplomatic dispute.

The report states that the possibility of political collapse or civil war should not be taken to mean its definite occurrence, noting that Israel still possesses powerful military, security and political structures and considerable ability to manage crises. It adds, however, that pressures that existed separately in recent years are now becoming simultaneous, and that this simultaneity could turn a potential vulnerability into a real crisis. It concludes that the main point of weakness may lie not at the borders but within society, and that if economic pressure, war-induced exhaustion, social divisions, political crisis and reduced foreign support intensify at the same time, even a limited incident could become the starting point of a larger crisis. According to Mehr News, the report's central argument is that the greater threat may come from internal fissures rather than an external attack.