Foreign Policy says Iran war marks turning point for US hegemony

A report by Foreign Policy Magazine, titled "Iran War Has Changed the World Forever," has assessed that the recent confrontation with Iran carries long-term consequences that are only beginning to emerge. According to the report, the strategic significance of these developments extends beyond regional borders and has influenced the security and economic calculations of major powers. The primary consequence identified is the exposure of the limitations of US military power. For decades, Washington operated on the assumption that its superiority in weaponry and technology could impose its political will on others. However, the experience with Iran has demonstrated that the capacity to destroy military targets does not necessarily translate into the ability to alter a nation's political behavior. The report notes that true power is measured not merely by military assets but by the ability to translate resources into enduring political outcomes. If a major power can inflict extensive damage yet fail to achieve its political objectives, it faces a gap between military capacity and strategic effectiveness. Despite heavy losses and intense pressure, Iran has shown that its defensive capabilities and political resolve cannot be assessed solely through conventional military calculations. Its geographical position, capacity for retaliation, and internal strengths ensure that any military action against the country would entail costs extending well beyond the battlefield.

A second consequence is the return of energy security to the center of global politics. The Strait of Hormuz is described as a vital artery of the international economy, with its security directly linked to the flow of oil and gas and the stability of global markets. Developments in the region demonstrate that a crisis in the Persian Gulf can impact the economies of nations thousands of kilometers away by driving up energy costs and disrupting supply chains. This holds particular significance for industrial powers in Asia and Europe, which are increasingly confronting the reality that their economic security is tied to security developments in the Persian Gulf. The report suggests that any attempt to establish a stable security order in the region without accounting for Iran's role will face serious limitations.

A third consequence is the erosion of US allies' confidence in Washington's security guarantees. The report states that a cornerstone of American global influence is its network of allies and security partners, which have tied their strategic stability to the credibility of US commitments. Recent experiences may raise new questions about the reliability of these guarantees. US allies are compelled to consider whether Washington's involvement in a crisis enhances their security or exposes them to unintended consequences. This may lead to a growing inclination to diversify foreign relations, strengthen independent defense capabilities, and reduce strategic dependence on Washington. This trend does not necessarily imply a complete distancing from the United States but signals a shift in calculations and a decline in Washington's monopoly over international security.

From the perspective of great-power competition, the report notes that the more resources the United States devotes to managing costly crises, the more constrained its capacity becomes to focus on other strategic priorities, including competition with China. Powers such as China and Russia may view these developments as a shift in the global balance, accompanied by a reduction in Washington's focus on other regions. However, this does not imply an automatic victory for America's rivals; rather, it suggests that the costs of a regional confrontation could be distributed across a broader scope. Ultimately, the report concludes that the most significant message of the Iran conflict is a shift in global perceptions regarding the limits of American power. While Washington continues to possess some of the world's greatest military and economic capabilities, its departure from a position of undisputed strategic supremacy is observable. The failure to impose political will, even when backed by military superiority, can erode the credibility of threats and deterrence. According to Foreign Policy, the consequences of this confrontation are only just beginning to unfold, and the world that emerges may not be the same as the one that preceded it.