Iran emerges stronger from US-Israel confrontation, says Mearsheimer

John Mearsheimer, a prominent international relations theorist and professor of political science at the University of Chicago, has stated that the assassination of Martyr Major General Qasem Soleimani was a major mistake and that Iran may emerge from the current conflict in a stronger economic and geopolitical position. His remarks are significant because he is a recognized theorist of the realist school in America, not an analyst close to Iran.

Over the past two decades, the United States and Israel have pursued a strategy of increasing pressure, sanctions, military threats, and weakening Iran's regional position. The assassination of Major General Soleimani was part of this approach, aimed at collapsing the Axis of Resistance and reducing Iran's influence. However, the Axis of Resistance did not collapse; instead, it became more cohesive and cooperation among its actors increased.

Iran has developed its defense, missile, and drone capabilities to a level that serves as a major deterrent in the region. Geopolitically, Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz gives it a powerful lever, as a significant portion of the world's oil and gas passes through this waterway. This reality forces world powers to consider Iran's role in their calculations.

Economically, the maximum sanctions policy has failed to achieve its objectives. Iran's political structure has not collapsed, and its strategic capabilities remain intact. As the world transitions to a multipolar order, Iran's capacity for cooperation with powers like China, Russia, and India has grown, helping mitigate the effects of sanctions.

Mearsheimer's analysis highlights that the US and Israel miscalculated by focusing solely on military power, ignoring political will, social mobilization, and regional coalition-building. Iran has repeatedly adapted to new conditions, maintaining stability through crises. In contrast, the US and Israel face heavy war costs, eroded deterrence, domestic criticism, and declining credibility.

The key question is which side has achieved its strategic objectives. If the goal was to contain Iran and weaken its influence, evidence shows these objectives have not been met. Iran remains a major regional player with preserved geopolitical influence and enhanced deterrence. Mearsheimer's realist perspective underscores that the pressure strategy has not contained Iran but has increased its capabilities and strategic standing.

According to Mehr News, the most important lesson for America and Israel is that West Asian equations cannot be changed solely by military means. Iran's geopolitical, historical, and strategic capacities make its removal from regional equations impossible. Therefore, Iran is likely to emerge from these confrontations with a more solid and influential position.