Iranian writer warns of catastrophic consequences if Islamic Republic falls

In an opinion article published by Mehr News, an Iranian writer reflected on the possibility of a military confrontation with the United States and Israel, warning that the fall of the Islamic Republic would have severe and far-reaching consequences for the region and the West. The writer began with a personal anecdote from the Iran-Iraq war, quoting a friend’s father who said, “As long as there is a God to be God and a world to be the world, foolish people will remain foolish.” He noted that years later, Noam Chomsky echoed a similar sentiment in response to an open letter the writer had sent to Donald Trump, suggesting that Trump was too foolish to heed advice against war with Iran.

The article characterized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former US President Donald Trump as “the cunning Fox” and “the irrational Donkey,” respectively, and accused them of attempting to provoke an attack on Iran. The writer argued that the current global narrative surrounding this “illegal aggression” presents a dilemma where both choices lead to defeat, citing Richard Nixon’s concept of “Victory without War.” He stated that one path—the collapse of American military prestige—is already visible, but he chose to focus on the consequences of the fall of the Islamic Republic for the world and the West.

The writer listed several points. First, he claimed that domestic opponents of the Islamic Republic lack understanding of the country’s lack of independence following a collapse, and that Trump would seize control of national wealth, diverting revenues to American banks, similar to occupied Iraq. Second, he argued that a new narrative of Iranians as “absolute victims” against an “absolute tyrant” West would emerge, leading to new revolutionary leaders more violent than the current establishment, who would seek global vengeance and abandon taboos against nuclear weapons. Third, he warned of guerrilla warfare involving 35 million volunteers, making Iraqi insurgencies look like a candle on a birthday cake. Fourth, he cited an Arabic proverb about a drowning man grasping at anything, and claimed Iran has prepared multi-hour plans to destroy infrastructure, targeting aid-providing nations of the US and Israel, and that the West would face a multi-front crisis after the destruction of Aramco, Israeli desalination plants, and subsea internet cables.

Fifth, he highlighted the strength of solidarity, noting that the Arbaeen pilgrimage hosts nearly ten million Iranians and millions of Shia and Sunni from other nations, and that the memory of occupation would catalyze unprecedented solidarity. Sixth, he predicted a flood of millions of migrants from Iran, Iraq, and other Persian Gulf nations into Western countries. Seventh, he recalled that Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili had privately told EU’s Catherine Ashton that if sanctions continued, Iran would only need to raise gasoline prices in Western countries by two dollars to trigger revolts, a phenomenon already manifesting in Europe. Eighth, he warned that occupation of Iranian soil would sever any path of compassion or restraint, and that American and Western soldiers would pay the price for Western military cartels and the corrupt Trump family, in a war between men fighting for occupied land and soldiers whose own people hate the conflict more than the Vietnam War.

The writer also referenced Sun Tzu’s Art of War, saying one should never completely surround an enemy but leave a golden bridge to retreat. However, he noted that Shia defenders, in pursuit of saving their fortress or country, do not consider saving their own lives and do not hesitate to surrender them. He concluded that whether Trump chooses attack or appeasement toward Iran, defeat is already a foregone conclusion, and the only difference lies in the cost. He said Trump lacks the wisdom to create a golden bridge for himself because he fails to realize that he is currently the one under siege—and so is Iran. The writer ended with the same sentiment shared by his friend’s father and Professor Chomsky: “As long as there is a God to be God and a world to be the world, foolish people will remain foolish.”